2025: What We Anticipated, What We Learned, and What’s Next

As 2025 draws to a close and we enter 2026, a brief moment of reflection feels timely.

“Prediction is not about being right – it’s about being ready.” — Nate Silver

The question is simple: did the year unfold as expected?
We anticipated transactional geopolitics, persistent conflicts, border pressures, a slow energy transition, and greater AI personalization [Major Global Themes to Watch in 2025]. And that’s exactly what happened.

But the details were more revealing than the forecast itself. Most striking were:

• AI has boosted market resilience in ways traditional policies couldn’t
• Geopolitical alignments have become more opportunistic than ideological
• Persistent border pressures have reinforced political fragmentation

The year 2025 has not changed the direction of global trends, but it has clarified the forces shaping them.

What We Saw Coming (and how it unfolded)

Transactional geopolitics became the baseline

We expected the U.S. to conduct foreign policy through bilateral deals rather than alliances – and that is exactly what happened. This approach didn’t just shape relationships; it reshaped international norms. Transactions replaced shared purposes.

Conflicts remained central, without decisive outcomes

Neither Ukraine nor the Middle East moved toward settlement. Instead, they became permanent geopolitical conditions that other powers learned to navigate rather than resolve.

Political change produced more constraint, not more room to maneuver

After major elections in 2024, new Western governments faced inflation, debt, and rising defense spending. The choices were predictable. The policy space was narrower than many imagined.

Border pressure intensified

From renewed Schengen controls to rising U.S. immigration tensions, borders became a central policy battleground. Movement of people – not just goods – became politically defining, exactly as anticipated.

Energy transition remained slow

Despite technological advances, global dependency on fossil fuels barely shifted. The transition remained incremental, far from the decisive acceleration the world urgently needs.

AI became personal

Perhaps the clearest fulfilled forecast was the personalization of AI. Agentic systems moved from curiosity to everyday utility – shaping decisions, services, and interactions. Companies didn’t just adopt AI – they reorganized around it.

What We Learned (and didn’t fully expect)

AI boosted market resilience, but also concealed fragility

One thing 2025 made clear is that massive AI investment acted as a stabilizing force in an otherwise constrained global economy. Market resilience in 2025 came less from policy decisions and more from technological investment. That doesn’t tell us how future resilience will evolve, but it shows how unusually powerful AI spending became in cushioning uncertainty.

New alliances emerged – more opportunistic than ideological

We anticipated geopolitical realignment. What exceeded expectations was the nature of these alignments. From Russia – India energy cooperation to China presenting itself as a “reliable” partner in parts of the Global South, alliances became pragmatic arrangements driven by advantage rather than worldview.

We got the trend right, but the configuration surprised.

Energy transition is technologically ready, politically constrained

The technology is there; the political conditions aren’t. In 2025, transition lagged not for lack of innovation, but because the systems that must change are still structurally dependent on the old order.

Four Lessons 2025 Leaves Us With

1. Global power is no longer organized by ideology, but by advantage. Transactional isn’t temporary; it’s structural.

2. Resilience this year came from technology more than from policy or macro fundamentals.

3. Border pressure is no longer episodic. It is a stable feature of global politics and identity.

4. Forecasting remains useful when grounded in humility. The direction was right. What changed was the shape, speed, and second-order effects.

What to Watch in 2026 (briefly)

AI correction or deeper integration
‍2026 will begin to show whether agentic systems deliver productivity or merely redistribute costs.

Opportunistic geopolitics becoming normal
Expect more tactical partnerships across regions – not as deviations, but as the new operating logic.

Borders as policy battlegrounds
Migration and demographic pressures will increasingly shape elections, narratives, and coalition politics.

None of these are predictions, they are probabilities.

Final Thoughts

2025 didn’t change the direction of global trends – it clarified the forces shaping them. It confirmed that we are moving into an era defined less by ideological blocs than by opportunistic diplomacy, technological acceleration, and structural pressures that don’t resolve but persist.

If this year taught us anything, it is that foresight is not about certainty – it is about readiness. We may not be able to predict the exact shape of what comes next, but we can learn to see the forces moving beneath it.

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